It’s safe to say that Avatar: The Way of Water is one of the most anticipated movies in recent memory, if not the most talked-about picture still scheduled for release in 2022. While it is expected that the sequel to 2009’s Avatar will bring in huge audiences, box office analysts are predicting that it may not match the success of the original. Variety reports that the domestic box office takes for Avatar: The Way of Water is expected to be approximately $649 million. Even more, money will be made because of the film’s availability in several media; projections put the film’s total earnings at $425 million, with an additional $214 million coming in thanks to video-on-demand and streaming services.
A worldwide gross of $649 million is nothing to scoff at, and it puts James Cameron’s highly anticipated sequel in a strong financial position, given that the film’s production budget was expected to be about $250 million. Assuming this box office forecast is reasonably true, however, the picture will still fall well short of the $772 million that the first Avatar made during its theatrical run. In spite of this, Cameron’s science fiction movie Avatar smashed multiple box office records upon its debut, making it difficult for any picture, even a direct sequel, to live up to expectations.
Avatar broke records at the box office, becoming the highest-grossing picture of all time after earning $760 million domestically and a record-breaking $2.79 billion internationally. Before Avengers: Endgame in 2019, it held the record for ten years. Endgame had been the highest-grossing film of all time, but Avatar regained the top place when a theatrical re-release in China pushed its worldwide total to $2.85 billion, surpassing Endgame’s total.
Due to the recent theatrical re-release in preparation for the sequel, the picture is now bringing in much more money than before. Even if Avatar: The Way of Water earns the full $649 million that has been forecast, it would still fall short of 2022’s highest-grossing picture, Top Gun: Maverick, which has made nearly $700 million at the American box office.
However, Variety cited a number of potential positive influences on Cameron’s follow-up. The film’s release during the peak of the Christmas moviegoing season, when major blockbusters are usually released, is another factor that bodes well for its success.
But this year, there is not much competition, as Avatar: The Way of Water really only has two major releases to face off against: DC Films’ Black Adam and the MCU juggernaut Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, both of which will be released months before Avatar: The Way of Water and thus are unlikely to have a major effect. Though both of these movies are estimated to do well at the box office (bringing in $328 million and $423 million, respectively), they won’t come close to Avatar: The Way of Water, which, if projections hold, will be the year’s biggest earner. Distributor 20th Century Studios and studio parent Disney have launched an extensive advertising campaign for the picture. Despite ten years of waiting for the sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water is not expected to come close to the success of the first film, according to industry experts.
On December 16, cinemas will show Avatar: The Way of Water.