The opening weekend for Black Adam, from Warner Bros. and DC Films, is expected to earn $67 million, which is far above industry projections. By Monday, when we expect the final tally, we may have a higher estimate. A total of roughly $60 million was predicted to be made in the first three days by the public for the Dwayne Johnson-led superhero flick, in which he portrays a godlike entity who is reawakened to wreak havoc after 5,000 years of slumber. Friday’s take was $26.7 million (including $7.6 million from Thursday previews), while Saturday’s was $23.7 million.
The latest forecast for Sunday is estimated at $16.6 million. The film’s strong reception from audiences (it has a B+ CinemaScore and a 90% audience rating on review aggregate Rotten Tomatoes) is driving ticket sales. Hispanics make up 26% of the box office take for Black Adam, and African-Americans make up 20%. In terms of critical acclaim, the picture fared only somewhat better than the majority of the earliest entries in the DC Extended Universe. It’s hard to deny the impact of Johnson’s marketing prowess and celebrity power in this situation. Black Adam, directed by Jaume Collet-Serra and reportedly costing $195 million to make, debuted at $67 million, making it Johnson’s largest opening weekend gross outside of the main Fast and Furious films.
Opening weekend earnings for Jumanji: The Next Level, San Andreas, and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw were all in the $55-$60 million range. Another picture from the DC Extended Universe, Shazam!, made $53 million in its first three days. This is a good (albeit not great) opening weekend for a superhero film, especially one featuring a character who isn’t on the A-list, but it pales in comparison to the $134 million that Matt Reeves’ The Batman made in its debut earlier this year. The opening weekend grosses of previous DCEU films, including Man of Steel ($116 million), Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166 million), Suicide Squad ($133 million), Wonder Woman ($103 million), and Justice League ($93 million), are all much higher.
Even once the dust settles, Black Adam might wind up with a bigger opening weekend than Aquaman’s $67.8 million, but it’s unlikely to have the same kind of staying power that helped James Wan’s picture gross over $1 billion worldwide. Ticket to Paradise, starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts, is Universal’s effort at counter-programming, and it has already earned over $80 million from international markets. The studio expects the film to earn $16.3 million in its opening weekend. Third place will go to Paramount’s Smile, which is expected to earn $8.3 million in its fourth weekend, bringing its domestic total to around $85 million.
This is a fantastic result for a word-of-mouth hit that capitalized on an empty-ish post-summer theatrical marketplace, and it’s Paramount’s latest triumph of the year. The previous weekend’s top film, Halloween Ends, had a steep drop in its second weekend due to mixed reviews and widespread availability on the Peacock streaming service. With a projected 80% drop this weekend, the picture will still earn $8 million, good for fourth place and adding to its $54 million domestic cume. Sony’s Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile closed out the top five with an expected $4.4 million in its third weekend for a domestic total of just under $30 million. Grosses this week above $100 million, the first time that has happened since Jordan Peele’s Nope was released in July.