It’s safe to say that Avatar: The Way of Water is one of the most anticipated movies in recent memory, if not the most talked-about picture still scheduled for release in 2022. However, analysts believe that the sequel to 2009’s Avatar may not pull in the same box office statistics as the original picture did. Approximately $649 million is expected to be made at the domestic box office by Avatar: The Way of Water, according to projections released by Variety. The picture is expected to generate $425 million through video-on-demand and $214 million from streaming platforms, so adding other distribution channels will help bring in even more money.
The $649 million in worldwide ticket sales for James Cameron’s eagerly anticipated sequel is nothing to scoff at, especially considering the film’s reported $250 million budget. The first Avatar made $772 million during its theatrical run, so even if this box office projection is close to true, the sequel will still fall well short of its predecessor. Cameron’s science fiction movie Avatar smashed multiple box office records upon its debut, making it a difficult order for any picture, even a direct sequel, to live up to. Avatar broke records at the box office, becoming the highest-grossing picture of all time after generating $760 million domestically and a record-breaking $2.79 billion globally.
For ten years, until Avengers: Endgame surpassed it in 2019. Avatar lost its worldwide number one place to Endgame, but a re-release in Chinese theatres in 2021 pushed its total to $2.85 billion, enough to surpass Endgame. A new theatrical release of the picture in anticipation of a sequel has increased its financial success. Even if Avatar: The Way of Water earns the full $649 million anticipated, it will still be behind 2022’s highest-grossing picture, Top Gun: Maverick, which has made nearly $700 million at the US box office. However, Variety cited a number of potential positive influences on Cameron’s follow-up.
Among these factors is the fact that, like the first picture, it is being released during the peak of the Christmas movie season, when major blockbusters normally do well. However, this year there is not a lot of competition, as Avatar: The Way of Water really only has two major releases to face off against: DC Films’ Black Adam and the MCU juggernaut Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both of these films will be released months before Avatar: The Way of Water, so they are not likely to have a major impact.
Both of these movies are projected to do well at the box office as well, bringing in $328 million and $423 million respectively. However, if everything goes according to plan, Avatar: The Way of Water will conclude the year with the most money made at the box office. Distributor 20th Century Studios and studio parent Disney have launched an extensive advertising campaign for the picture. Critics in the film industry believe that Avatar: The Way of Water will not even come close to the success of the first picture, despite the high expectations fans have for the sequel after waiting ten years.
On December 16, cinemas will show Avatar: The Way of Water.